IRAN'S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS AND WESTERN DILEMMA

As far as Iran is concerned America is the Satan. And it is out do the god-fearing, innocent people of Iran in by the hooks and the crooks. Iran claims as it has been growing fast its energy needs has also been on the rise. To meet the increasing demands it has to harness the nuclear fuels. But the western countries are not convinced. They fear that a nuclear Iran could lead to large scale nuclear proliferation and it would pose a greater threat to world peace.
All the same Iran has shown signs of some sort of compromise. Iran has agreed to send the Uranium it has to Turkey. Though many countries including China welcomed the new initiative the Americans have hardened their positions and have made it clear the new move is not satisfactory enough.
American President Obama has called for more coordination among the nations of the world and tough steps to stop Iran pursuing its nuclear ambitions. He has also urged the UN to impose sanctions on Iran for its defiance.
French President Sarkozy after a meeting with Obama at the White House said that Iran must not be allowed to carry on its ‘mad race’. It is high time the UN imposed sanctions on Iran he added. The European nations would stand united behind the sanction Sarkozy declared in a voice that exuded confidence.
The G8 Foreign Ministers have also called for stepping up pressure on Iran to give up its ambitious nuclear program.
Earlier Iran had agreed to a deal proposed by the IAEA. Iran’s claim is that it needs Uranium enriched up to 20 percent, to make medical isotopes to be used in the treatment of Cancer. According to the plan Iran is to send lightly enriched Uranium to Russia which will enrich it to 20 percent. Russia will send the enriched Uranium to France which will convert it into fuel rods and send it back to Iran. Uranium enriched up to 20 percent can be used to make bombs. Once it is converted into fuel rods it cannot be used to make bombs.
Iran now says that it is going ahead with its plan to enrich Uranium up to 20 percent on its own. On 11 February Iranian President Ahmadinejad claimed that Iran had already enriched uranium up to 20 percent successfully. He went on to claim that his country has developed techniques to enrich Uranium up to 80 percent, should the need arouse. However, as of now Iran does not require Uranium enriched to such high degree he added.
Although these developments have caused much disquiet in the West, they have not been able to come up with concrete steps to stop Iran. Now that Sarkozy has also voiced his concern in strong words and called for immediate action against Iran, some stern actions can be expected in the coming days. The US may be able to bring Russia round. But nothing can be said with any degree of certainty how China would react.
Earlier China had opposed moves to impose sanctions on Iran. On 5 February Chinese Foreign minister was reported to have said “the parties concerned should with the over-all and long-tern interests in mind step up diplomatic efforts, stay patient and adopt a more flexible pragmatic and proactive policy”.
Will the Americans be able to win China over to their side is to be seen.

PARLIMENTARY ELECTIONS IN SRI LANKA

Having won all the elections, the Council Elections, the Presidential Election and the General Election Rajapaksa, the President of Sri Lanka can feel safe and secure. Having failed to win the confidence of the people the opposition has brought discredit upon itself. Indeed the voter turn out reported to be around 54%, was all time low. All the same it does not belittle Rajapaksa’s victory. His party, United People’s Freedom Alliance, a group of ten parties, bagged 143 seats out of 225 in the election held almost a year after the Lankan army put the LTTE to rout. LTTE believed to be the well organized militant group in the world was defeated and its leader Prabhakaran was killed in a fierce battle by the Lankan army. The LTTE is said to have had an Air force and Navy of its own.
Neither the United National Party (UNP) led by the former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe nor Democratic National Alliance (DNA), led by the retired General Sarath Fonseka, one of the main architects of the military victory of the Lankan army over LTTE, could not win the confidence of the people.
The pro-LTTE, Tamil National Alliance (TNA) managed to bag 16 seats six seats less than what it had in the last assembly.
Having tasted military as well as electoral victory, President Rajapaksa described his party’s electoral victory as an endorsement of his policies and a rejection of the allegations against his government. Agencies reported Rajapaksa as having said, “The assured majority in Parliament given by the votes encourages the government to proceed with its policies for the strengthening of peace and reconciliation, reconstruction, greater infrastructure development, increased investment in identified areas of growth”.
Rajapaksa needs the support of just seven members for a two-thirds majority in the parliament. Anyone who has been watching Rajapaksa knows that winning the support of seven legislators is child’s play for the shrewd politician that he is.
According to Ranil Wikremesinghe, however, the results are not an endorsement of the government policies. He is reported to have said that the fact that the percentage of the people who did not turn out for the voting was about forty eight was an indication of the people’s indignation at the government’s policies. All the same, he has not been able to explain his party’s dismal performance.
Now that the President has all the power he needs at his disposal he must in all earnestness take the initiate to solve the decades old ethnic problems of the island. Though the LTTE has been wiped out, the causes that gave rise to the LTTE have not been addressed as yet. Rajapaksa’s contention till now has been that a constitutional amendment, for which a two-thirds majority is needed, is necessary to solve the ethnic problem. Now that he has in his hands as it were what he lacked, he must move fast. Other he will lose faith that the people reposed in him.
Let’s hope that Rajapaksa will employ the mandate he has been given judiciously. Let’s us all who want to see a peaceful solution to the Tamil ethnic problem hope that it will emerge soon.

INDO-RUSSIAN RELATIONSHIP

Indo-Russian relationship has stood the test of time. Russia has always stood by India in the International forums. Even the collapse of the USSR has not dented the relationship in anyway. Russia had even offered to hand over the technical know-how of the cryogenic engine to India. Unfortunately succumbing to the US pressure Russia later withdrew from its earlier stand.

The Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signed many agreements when Putin visited India in early March this year. They are expected to strengthen the bilateral relationship between the two countries further.

At a time when the nuclear energy is expected to meet the ever increasing energy needs in India Russia has promised to build a nuclear reactor at Haripur in West Bengal and two at Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu within the next ten years. The Russians has reportedly told India that they could build 10 to 12 nuclear reactors in India in no time. This assurance has helped India to heave a sigh of relief.

Sergei Ivanov, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister said that his country had promised India that it would build “16 nuclear energy units” in India. Both the countries have also agreed to cooperate more in the exploration of gas and oil as well. It could lead to an over all surge in the bilateral trade between the counties.

The defense deals India signed with the US, Israel and other counties had made Russia anxious. Manmohan Singh sought to ally the Russian anxiety by saying that they “had finalized several important and long-pending defense cooperation projects”. Putin on his part assured India that it would keep the interests of India in mind and would not have any defense deals with Pakistan.

Not to be outdone by other countries especially the US, Russian have expressed their readiness to produce its fifth generation fighter as a joint venture with India. India is reported to have conveyed its readiness to Russia. If both the countries are able to work out the details it would be the second joint venture by India and Russia after the BrahMos cruise missile.

Though there is no denying the fact that this news is heartening to India, India should not hasten to sign agreements with Russia. Unavailability of spare parts has always caused much heartburning in India. We must before signing any agreements get an assurance from Russia as to the availability of the spares. This is important in the context of the Russian ambassador’s own admission that even Russia has problems getting spares for its own use. Many of the factories that make the spare parts are located in former Soviet Republics.

India and Russia have also settled the disputes about the cost of the submarine Admiral Gorshkov. It was in 2004 that India decided to buy the submarine from Russia. The agreed price was $974 million. However, as Russia took time to restructure it according to the needs of India the price also kept soaring. Now both the countries have arrived at a price of $2.3billion

Let us hope that the time-tested relationship between the countries will become stronger in the coming days.

MYANMAR ELECTION 2010

The 64 year old elegant lady Aung San Suu kyi has been under house arrest for about fourteen years now. By all appearances it seems that the military Junta has no intention of releasing her in the near future. They know well that if she is released now, it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible to put her behind the bars again. Given the nature of the military regime it would prolong her detention as much as possible under one pretext or another.

What surprises me is the silence of India and America described as the largest and greatest democracies of the world in the face of the inhuman treatment the military in Myanmar meets out to Suu kyi. Even the UN apart from the accessional lip service, has not been able to do something concrete about it. The various Human rights organizations are so preoccupied with defending the rights of terrorists that they have no time and energy to make the Myanmar military regime see that Suu Kyi deserves better treatment.

Last year as she was about to be released from her house arrest an American national Than Swe by name swam across a lake to meet Suu Kyi. The military court sentenced her to undergo three years imprisonment. However, it was commuted to 18 months imprisonment. The US national was allowed to go home. The whole world knew that the Junta was trying to stop her from contesting the national election.

Recently the Junta introduced new electoral legislations. It does not require any analysis to see that they were enacted to offset the efforts of the opposition to unseat it. As per the new rule a party to be eligible to participate in the election must get itself registered. In case of failure it will be dismantled. And the party should not allow a member who has served a prison term to continue as its member. In other words Suu Kyi cannot be a member of her party. According to the law the NLD has to expel Suu Kyi. A spokesman of NLD, Nyan Win told AFP “I have noticed that we have to expel Daw Suu (Suu Kyi)”. “I did not think it would be so bad”. He added.

The NLD has decided not to register. Nyan Win, Suu Kyi’s lawyer is reported to have said, “If we register it would mean the NLD is everything the Junta asks it to do. The NLD is working for free democracy”.

Aung Din of the ‘US Campaign for Burma’ said, “Now the ball is in the court of the UN , USA and the international community who have repeatedly calling for the regime to make an inclusive, free and fair election”.

Meanwhile Tomas Ojea Quintana, the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights is Myanmar has said that the UN Security Council should think about setting up an inquiry committee “with a specific fact-finding mandate to address the question of international crimes”. He has charged the Military regime with gross human rights violation.

As part of its game plan the Junta has allowed the NLD to reopen its regional offices that have remained closed since 2003. Let us hope that the fact that the junta is trying to create an impression of being liberal will not be lost on the world leaders.

IS DEMOCRACY UNSUITABLE FOR NEPAL?

Former Prime Minister of Nepal Krishna Prasad Bhattarai is reported to have said that Nepal is not ripe for federalism and republicanism. He has also reportedly called for a revival of constitutional monarchy which he claims to be the best form of government for Nepal.

According to Bhattarai, one of the founding leaders of the Nepali Congress no form of government can be imposed on a society. He is reported to have said “Federalism, secularism and republican system are imported from outside and are not suitable for Nepal. They have been brought in a hurry and are against Nepal’s genuine identity and need”.

However, Bimalendra Nidhi, the general secretary of the party has disassociating from the comment said that it is not the official view of the party. Saying that “We don’t buy his ideas”, Nidhi said that Bhattarai was not active in politics.

The 1990 Constitution had guaranteed Constitutional Monarchy. The Maoists wanted a new constitution for Nepal. It was removed in 2008 to enable the Maoists to join the political mainstream and contest election. However, the government headed by the Maoist leader Prachanda could not rule Nepal for long as it was on a collision course with the president since its inception. Many of Prachanda’s action as the Prime Minister of Nepal had irked India. Especially his visit to China after assuming office annoyed the Indian policy makers. Traditionally the Nepali Prime Minister used to visit India after being sworn in. There were no takers for his argument that he visited China first to take part in the opening g ceremony of the Olympics.

The question can democracy or any other form of government be transplanted to a country is a much debated one. The Americans have been striving to democratize the world. Earlier the USSR since the time of Lenin and Stalin sought to make all countries in the world Communist. Lenin even believed that three fourths of the world would have been converted to Communism by the end of the 20th century. The break up of the USSR and the collapse of the Berlin Wall in Germany proved it to have been a delusion.

To my mind the argument that democracy does not suit Nepal or any other country for that matter does not make any sense at all. A closer examination revels that all the democratic countries have defects of various kinds. None is perfect. It cannot be. The American, the British and the Indian versions of democracies can be faulted on many counts. Democracy took roots in these countries slowly and gradually. The most important point to be kept in mind is that these countries had great leaders and statesmen with the conviction that democracy was the best option around. All of them knew well that democratic principles could be distorted easily. And it could even ruin a country if the institutions failed to function well.

As I see it, building institutions and ensuring that they function well are very important. Only leaders with vision and conviction can guarantee it. Unfortunately Nepal lacks leaders with vision and conviction. Though the Koiralas, in their fight against the British and the Ranas, were inspired by the Indian struggle for freedom and the leadership of Gandhiji and Nehru, they failed to build and mould democratic institutions in Nepal. The monarchy, the brief spells of democracy and the Maoist rule have made the Nepalese cynical.

Bhattarai says that democracy cannot be imposed on Nepal. True. The very word ‘impose’ itself is against the spirit of democracy. The seeds of democracy are to be sowed first. And the young plants, the democratic institutions, are to be guarded against the attacks of pests of various kinds.

I do not subscribe to his view that democracy does not suit Nepal or any other country for that matter. At present democracy seems to be the best form of government around for us despite its many defects.

TALK WITH THE TALIBAN?

 In Afghanistan and elsewhere all are in a hurry these days. What with the large scale destruction and displacement the people of Afghanistan are desperate and disappointed. Obama is now more anxious to find a way to get out of Afghanistan. Last week in a fit of anger Karzai, the Afghan president said that he would join the Taliban unless the American helped him. Slowly and gradually it has dawned on everyone concerned with Afghanistan that it is not easy if not impossible to defeat the Taliban. Another point that is not to the liking of many is the realization that there cannot be a long lasting settlement without the participation of the Taliban.

The goal of the present military operation in Afghanistan is to strengthen the bargaining power of the of the Karzai government vis a vis the Taliban at the negotiation table and produce what they describe as ‘reasonable outcomes’. All the same no one seems to have a clue about the ‘reasonable outcome” or what could be ‘reasonable’.

Britain also wants the Afghan administration to speed up the political process and reach a settlement as early as possible. The Germans that has had to face the ire of the Afghan people recently for attacks on the civilians want to get out of the quick sand early.

Meanwhile Karzai has planned to convene a meeting of the innumerable tribal leaders. Karzai is a member of the Peshthun ethnic group. Most of the Taliban fighters also belong to this group. No wonder the president addresses the militants as ‘our disenchanted brothers’. The president and the army find it increasingly difficult to carry on the fighting against their ‘brothers’. There are even reports that the government has established contacts with the militants. However, the opposition believes that it is impossible to accommodate the Taliban in the future scheme of things.

The Americans are a worried lot. They are in a double bind. If negotiations with the Taliban would help Karzai to widen his support base and persuade the Taliban to lay down arms they would not oppose it. At the same time they do not trust Karzai much. What if Karzai failed (or refused) to disarm the Taliban?

Many questions pop in the mind of those who observe the developments in Afghanistan. Are the groups of Taliban described as ‘sane’ and ‘good’ are really sane and good? Can they ensure the safety of the people and the region? What if the ‘insane’ and ‘bad’ Taliban overpowered the ‘sane’ and ‘good’?

KANU SANYAL

With the suicide of Kanu Sanyal an era has come to an end.

When Kanu Sanyal, Charu Mazumdar and others founded the Naxal Movement in the late sixties they had a lofty goal. A society sans class and hence a society sans exploitation. A society where honey and milk flowed like water. Marx had said that what he was trying to do was to bring the heaven from the sky down to the earth. He could not do it before he died. The Naxals thought that they were destined to do precisely that.

It was on 23 April 1969 Sanyal, Mazumdar and their close associates formed the CPI (ML) [Communist Party of India- Marxist-Leninist]. It was on1st May 1969 they announced the formation of the party. When the left in Bengal joined hands with the Congress accepting Parliamentary Democracy and rejecting an eternal struggle against it, Sanyal and a handful of loyal friends felt that it was a betrayal of the toiling masses. They thought that the part supposed to liberate the people from the clutches of the capitalist wolves was sacrificing their revolutionary struggle for crumbs of power.

On 2 March 1967 a tribal youth with he permission of the judiciary went to his field. In no time he was stopped by the thugs of the landlord. The tribal also joined hands a fight followed. A policeman was killed. The next day the police retaliated and fired killing many. However the police failed to control the agitated peasants. They forcibly occupied the lands of the landlords who had to flee for their life. It was led by Charu Mazumdar.

It was the armed uprising of the peasants on 25 May 1967 in a small village called Naxalbari in North Bengal that grew into the dreaded Naxal Movement. In the late sixties and late seventies the movement sent shivers the spines of rich and powerful gentry. Wayanad and Palghat in Kerala were also the hot hubs of the Naxal Movement.

Soon differences cropped up between Sanyal and Mazumdar. They were poles apart on the question of use of violence to achieve their goal. Mazumdar believed that there cannot be a revolution till the class enemies are eliminated with force. Mazumdar’s line of thinking did not impress Sanyal much. He felt that killing ordinary policemen accusing them of being the agents of the class enemy would not lead to revolution. Mazumdar was arrested in 1972 and died in police custody just three years after the formation of the movement. Later Sanyal gave up the idea of armed uprising and disassociated from the new generation of leaders.

Later Vinod Misra, Nagbhushan Patnaik and Subrat Dutta gave birth to a liberal CPI (ML) and proclaimed their faith in parliamentary democracy.