THE AFGHAN SITUATION

The Afghan situation is getting murkier by the day. Now it is said that Karzai’s share of the votes fallen below the required 50%. Karzai’s victory in the general election will force the Americans to adapt their policies and strategies in Afghanistan in such a way as to accommodate Karzai’s concerns.
Americans are not that comfortable working with Karzai ever since he began to assert himself in 2007. Earlier he had no say in the number of NATO forces deployed in his country. As the civilian causalities in the war against the Taliban, mounted and the Afghan people became hostile towards his government he demanded a say in the number and manner of troop deployment. He later insisted on a Status of Force Agreement similar to that of Iraq. Karzai also wanted the international aid agencies not to by pass his government in deciding the quantum of assistance and various developmental activities. Above all, he initiated an intra-Afghan peace process involving the tribal council.
That was unacceptable to the West. For if he succeeded in his attempt then the NATO forces would have to leave the country and the Americans would not be able to herald its own kind of democracy in the region.
The Americans seems to have a two pronged strategy in Afghanistan. According to the US National Security Advisor Mr. James Jones, the ultimate aim of America is “to disrupt, dismantle and prevent the al-Quaeda from being able to operate in its safe havens.” Claiming that additional forces are required to stop the Taliban Obama administration increased the number forces deployed in Afghanistan by fifty percent.
Americans are also aware of the civilian causalities and the hatred it creates in the minds of the Afghan people towards the American presence. General Stanley a MacChrystal, the NATO commander in Afghanistan is reported to have stated, “This is s struggle for the support of the Afghan people. Our willingness to operate in ways that minimize casualties or damage, even when doing so makes our task more difficult, is essential to our credibility”.
Although the intentions are commendable it would call for further deployment of large number of troops in Afghanistan. To dismantle the Taliban fighters from Afghanistan the troops would have to carry out house to house searches. It would take years to complete the process. And it could land Karzai in trouble.
Mr. Richard Hollbrooke, the US President Obama’s special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan and his team has been preparing a civilian strategy to be introduced in Afghanistan.
Mr. Karzai’s victory would make it difficult for the US to implement its plan. Mr. Karzai has allowed Mr. Dostum, who has been in Turkey and built a formidable coalition comprising mujahideen leaders such as Mohammed Mohaqiq, Mohammed Fahim,and Ismail Khan. Ismail Khan is a friend of Mr. Burhamuddin Rabbani, a former Presidnet of Iran, enemy of the US. Karzai also enjoys the supports of the war lords in the country. In such a context if Karzai wins the election America will find it extremely difficult to control the government in Kabul.